Deja vu?

"Since you have rejected knowledge, I also will reject you from being my priest."

I was reminded yesterday of the anniversary of Stalin’s invasion and occupation of Poland in 1939.

During the Cold war, I was taught that the invasion was a wise and necessary step by Comrade Stalin to forestall Hitler and “save” the Ukrainians and Belarusians who lived in the eastern part of Poland, because the Polish government had collapsed. The Russian forces faced limited resistance and were even believed by Poland to advance to fight the Germans.

What ensued at the end of the 20-day military operation was a massive terror campaign and sham elections, used to legitimize the occupation. Thousands of people were send to Siberian Gulags and the brutal occupation lasted for 2 years, until the German invasion in the summer of 1941.

Fast forward to 2022, and on February 24th Putin ordered "special military operations" in Ukraine at the request of Russian-backed separatist leaders to "protect” them form the Ukrainian Army.

Aiming for a quick and decisive victory, Putin’s forces were able to advance rapidly but were surprised by the fierce resistance they encountered, leading to the war eventually stalling and to the current counteroffensive by the Ukrainian forces.

Let’s look at why Putin’s military operations are facing such different fate that Stalin’s invasion of Poland in 1939. What future scenarios might unfold for both sides as the war approaches it’s 18 month mark?

The start of the war in Feb 2022 was admittedly impressive, with the Russian army gaining ground fast and with a significant show of force, leaving little doubt of the quick and decisive victory they were expecting.

Just like in 1939, the Russian troops were able to penetrate deep into foreign territory and face little resistance. Contrary to Poland though, Ukraine had no illusions as to the purpose and eventual goals of the Russian invasion. The annexation of Crimea in March 2014 was a costume rehearsal for what many in Ukraine, the US and European governments foresaw as the eventual annexation of Ukraine into the Russian federation, either by installing a puppet government or by force.

Unlike Poland in 1939, Ukraine was immediately supported by the US and Europe, giving both the chance to engage in a proxy war with Russian and in the process extend loans, sell (older Soviet-era) arms and munition and, most importantly, cripple the Russian economy by financial and physical war of attrition.

A big, and maybe overlooked, fact is the festering dislike (almost hatred) of the general Ukrainian population towards Russia. The surprising grass roots resistance to the invasion was nothing like the welcoming attitude in 1939 Poland.

So, after 18 months of war and many thousands dead, injured and displaced people on both sides, what are the possible scenarios, based on some historical inferences?

Scenario #1 (<1%)

Involves use of tactical nuclear weapons, dirty bombs, or an act of sabotage at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. This scenario was regarded as improbable until the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam on June 6th of this year. The chances of this desperate step taking place increase if the Ukrainian forces are able to substantially breach the Russian defenses in the occupied territories in eastern Ukraine. Both sides would be forced to negotiate a cease-fire, most likely through additional pressure by the US and Europe.

Scenario #2 (~70%)

Prolonged war of attrition (a la Afghanistan) in which both sides suffer extensive depletion of human and physical resources. Even though Ukraine is enjoying potentially limitless support by the West, a steep initial population decline coupled with ongoing loss of life against an enemy that historically is willing to endure high numbers of casualties will force both sides to favor diplomatic resolutions as more time passes.

Scenario #3 (~15%)

A shift in public opinion of the war in Ukraine in the US and Europe. A Republican winner in the 2024 presidential election could severely limit or discontinue the financial and military support for Ukraine. A harsh winter in Europe will expose the inadequate steps taken to replace Russian energy and could potentially benefit the election of members of parties with anti-Ukrainian and anti-war platforms. Any decrease in support of Ukraine will eventually lead to substantial gains and a possible occupation by Russia.

Scenario #4 (~15%)

Increased isolation of Putin’s government and internal discontent. Even with the recent support of North Korea, Russia could face decreased financial support by China as well as increased sanctions by the West, leading to fewer resources to deploy at the front lines as well as a decrease in military age men willing and able to be drafted.

Scenario #5 (<1%)

Black swan event - the assassination of Putin, financial collapse in China, government default in the US or a major energy disaster in Europe all can alter the current power structure and push the war into uncharted territory.

As we approach 18 moths of war between Ukraine and Russia it is interesting to see if one can predict with some degree of success what the next 6 to 12 months hold.

Even more interesting would be the state of the world after the November 2024 election which in my opinion might alter profoundly the power balance in the war.

I will appreciate any comments and corrections and thank you for reading!